IEA Net Zero

Let's look at the IEA World Energy Outlook 2022.

The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE2050, usually just referred to as NZE) maps out a way to achieve a 1.5 °C stabilisation in the rise in global average temperatures, alongside universal access to modern energy by 2030.

To achieve this it states that the world would need to reduce annual emissions to 23 Gt by 2030 and to net zero by 2050.

The chart on the right show the "straight line" routes to those milestones from where we are now.

As you can see, the required rate of decline is extreme compared to the recent rate of growth. We need to remove emissions much more quickly than we've been adding them.

The Keeling Curve and Mauna Loa

The Keeling Curve is a daily record of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

The chart shows measurements of CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since the late 1950s. (Note the the vertical axis does not include a true zero.)

Other options for timeframe and presentation are available, but I believe this to be one of the best records of observed increases in CO₂ concentrations that we have.

IEA Forecasting

Since it introduced its NZE Scenario in IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 the IEA has updated its forecast for emissions in 2030. Each year the forecast increases, and each year the task to achieve the goal looks more challenging.

The chart shows the forecasts as they were in 2020 and 2021, each starting from the actual emissions up to that time.

Although the WEO often reports good progress in adding to capacity for renewable energy sources, we have yet to see any actual sustained success in world emissions reduction.

It is not enough to achieve record increases in capacity. We need to see world emissions stop increasing and for them then to reduce rapidly.

Global Carbon Project Emissions Forecast 2022

Carbon emissions from fossil fuels will hit record levels this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) 2022.

The chart shows the Global Carbon Project forecast for 2022.

For a fuller discussion of the GCB Report see this Guardian piece.

Amongst the quotes from that report we have “Carbon emissions are continuing to rise, and if this continues, climate change will reach a very destructive stage in a single decade.”